“This is I guess what everybody wanted and expected in the beginning of the tournament” – was Novak Djokovic’s precise reaction when he set up a blockbuster Cincinnati Open final against Carlos Alcaraz last week. And it has precisely been the reaction of fans for every draw having the two since Rafael Nadal took the year off with a hip injury earlier this season. Fans have been treated with the blockbuster clash thrice this year already, with Djokovic winning twice – in French Open and Cincinnati – while Alcaraz won in Wimbledon which levelled the head-to-head score to 2-all. As US Open beckons, with the main draw slated to begin from Monday onwards at the USTA National Billie Jean King Tennis Centre, world tennis wants the tie to settled with the world No. 1 ranking up for grabs as well. With the two being the top-seeded players in the draw, the likely face-off will only be in the summit clash, a prediction most critics have already made. But is there a one, who can crash the party in New York?
FIRST QUARTER:
It is difficult to look past Alcaraz in this section of the draw as the Spaniard begins his campaign against Dominik Koepfer and has his first possible threat in No. 16 seed Cameron Norrie, in the fourth round. But the draw also has Jannik Sinner, implying a rematch of their epic showdown on Arthur Ashe Stadium last year. If the sixth seeded Italian can navigate his way past 2020 US Open finalist Alexander Zverev, seeded 12th, in the fourth round, a blockbuster clash, once again in the quarterfinal, will be on cards between Sinner and Alcaraz.
The two youngsters, deemed as part of the ‘Next Gen Big Three’, have been inseparable on the head-to-head tie, winning three each of their six meetings. They have a win each in Grand Slams encounters and a win each in 2023 with Sinner having won the latest, in Miami Open semis. The only edge Alcaraz has over Sinner is on hard court meetings, winning three of their four meetings.
But for Alcaraz to set up that epic clash in the last eight, he has to play his best tennis, contrary to what he has shown in the two tune-up events. Although he did make the final in Cincinnati, the erratic performance saw him suffer a shock second-round defeat in Montreal.
Quarterfinal: Alcaraz beats Sinner.
SECOND QUARTER:
Medvedev loves the hard court. Although he won a maiden clay-court Masters 1000 event in Rome this year and made the Wimbledon semis as well, his best run came on his preferred surface where he made five straight finals, winning four, including in Indian Wells (runner-up) and Miami Open (champion). The Russian also has an impressive record in US Open, where he reached the final in 2019, made the semis next year before beating Djokovic to claim the title in 2021.
If Medvedev can bounce back from his middling 3-2 record across Toronto and Cincinnati, there is no stopping him, at least in this quarter, where his only big threat lies in eighth seed Andrey Rublev, in the quarters. But the fellow Russian will have to overcome a tough opening week against Emil Ruusuvuori, who knocked him down in a third-set tiebreak last week in Cincinnati, followed by a possible Gael Monfils clash in the second and Hubert Hurkacz in the fourth.
Quarterfinal: Medvedev beats Hurkacz.
THIRD QUARTER:
The youngest of the ‘Next Gen Big Three’, Holger Rune finds himself in the third quarter of the draw, but the Dane, who rose to fame with a stunning win over Djokovic in Paris Masters final last year, heads to New York on the back o1f an underwhelming show in Montreal and Ohio. Coming back from a back injury, Rune suffered an opening round loss at both the events.
Casper Ruud, the 2022 finalist, stood just one better, but unimpressive nonetheless. While he incurred a second-round loss in Canadian Open, he was defeated in his campaign opener in Cincinnati.
While the draw offers the fourth and fifth seeded stars to bounce back to form with a comfortable draw, it also offers an opportunity to someone like Tommy Paul, No. 14 seed, to go the distance. The American, who lost ton Ruud in the third round last year in New York, recently defeated Alcaraz en route to his semifinal run in Montreal and also repeated the same a week later in Cincinnati as well before being beaten by the Spaniard in the round of 16.
Quarterfinal: Paul beats Ruud.
FOURTH QUARTER:
Djokovic has won nine Slams since 2021, but none of those came at the US Open. Either it was injury in 2019 or the infamous incident with the line-umpire that got him disqualified in 2020 or the pressure of scripting history in 2021 or covid restrictions in 2022.
With renewed energy, after the Wimbledon loss that denied him an unprecedented 24th major and the inspiration he draws from his sensational win against Alcaraz last week, Djokovic will be raring to claim his fourth title in US Open and first since 2018. And the Serb couldn’t have asked for a better draw to end his drought which is earliest threat in Stefanos Tsitsipas or Taylor Fritz in the quarters.
Quarterfinal: Djokovic beats Fritz.
Semifinal: Alcaraz beats Medvedev; Djokovic beats Paul.
Final: Djokovic beats Alcaraz.
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