Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
A McGregor-Paul boxing match seems to be in the works — it just doesn’t include the Paul everyone might be thinking of.
UFC mega-star Conor McGregor took to social media on Tuesday to announce that he won’t be fighting UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria. Instead, he’ll try his hand at boxing again. This time it will be against influencer and WWE Superstar Logan Paul, the older brother of influencer and boxer Jake Paul. Odds Shark currently has Paul as a -150 favorite while McGregor is a +120 underdog.
Still, despite the curveball, Jake Paul vs. Conor McGregor is a match that has been churning in the rumor mill for some time, and it got us to thinking: If a Jake Paul-Mike Tyson boxing match broke Netflix, would a bout between the younger Paul and McGregor break the internet?
Paul-McGregor would certainly be more competitive in the ring, it would rile up both fighters’ rabid fan bases and, most importantly, the betting appetite would be an absolute boon for sportsbooks across America.
Not too long ago, I wrote a story for FOX Sports about the betting line for Rocky Balboa and Ivan Drago’s mythical Christmas Eve match. We polled a group of bookmakers, bettors and industry experts to price the fight.
Now it’s time to price Paul-McGregor.
Let’s assume it’s a standard 12-round match, with three-minute rounds and 10-ounce gloves. Paul fought at 227 pounds against Tyson and McGregor hovers around 170 these days. So, let’s say they box around 195.
Just typing out the fight parameters gets the juices flowing.
The Paul-Tyson match drew 108 million viewers with a reported $80 million purse. Some experts believe Paul-McGregor has a bigger global impact, which could lead to a potential purse that reaches nine figures when the dust settles.
You can almost hear the money printing.
“It would be the biggest fight possible for boxing,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of race and sports John Murray said from his Las Vegas office.
“Paul -200 [risk $200 to win $100] seems fair,” Murray continued. “That feels like a decent opening price. There’s no reason to go crazy high because there’s always so much McGregor money in these big fights.
“195 pounds is a big weight for McGregor. I don’t know that Conor goes through the grind of a full training camp. He has so much money, and I’m not sure he has the desire anymore. If we’re talking boxing, Paul should probably be favored by more than -200, but people love betting on McGregor.”
It is worth remembering how popular McGregor was at the window leading up to his 2017 fight against undefeated superstar Floyd Mayweather Jr. Even with Mayweather a perfect 49-0, McGregor was a magnet for public money.
And price sensitivity? Pfft. Forget it.
“You couldn’t stop people from betting McGregor,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews recalled. “I was one of the first people to post that fight, and we opened Mayweather -2700. I think it closed at -500.
“I watched the fight [with South Point owner Michael Gaughan]. Those first three rounds, I was a little nervous. One of the guys watching in the room knew boxing and kept saying everything was fine. But it’s not his couple hundred thousand dollars on the line, it’s mine!
“We did pretty good on the fight.”
What would Andrews do with Paul-McGregor?
“Oh God,” he cracked. “I think I would open Paul -225, but I don’t really know. And McGregor has to put on 25 pounds? That’s not all muscle.”
“We don’t dabble in hypotheticals,” Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson reminded me. “Given I like you, I’d say Paul would maybe be a slightly bigger favorite than the closing price of Paul-Tyson. This is me also thinking about it for six seconds.”
Jeff Davis, director of risk at Circa, despises hypotheticals more than anybody I’ve ever met, and even he was semi-intrigued by Paul-McGregor.
“To be honest, I don’t know what this price should be off the top of my head,” Davis admitted. “But this fight could actually happen, so I appreciate you not asking me for a ridiculous hypothetical.”
“Maybe Paul -150?” WynnBET senior trader Motoi Pearson guessed. “It helps that McGregor is not a 58-year-old man. That seems important.”
“Tyson was so old,” Rampart Casino sportsbook director Duane Colucci added. “McGregor is a much bigger challenge. On the blind, I say Paul -125 just because of McGregor’s inactivity.”
“I think Paul’s around a -240 favorite,” Golden Nugget executive sportsbook director Tony Miller forecasted. “He’s a bigger puncher. The fight won’t go the distance. McGregor will get all the public love and sharps will lay the price closer to fight time. We’ll probably all be rooting for Paul.”
“Jake Paul -175, Conor McGregor +155,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman predicted. “In these exhibition bouts, you tend to see plenty of plus-price support show up.”
Some bettors I know would love Paul at a cheap price.
“The realistic line should be closer to -340,” professional bettor David Woodley argued. “Paul is in his prime, and he’s been boxing for years now. McGregor is also like 5-foot-8 and would have to put on 30 pounds. My head is spinning thinking about that. I would bet the farm on Paul at -200.”
“I think it should be Paul -350,” Vegas oddsmaker and fighting analyst Nick Kalikas said. “Conor in his prime is a different story. Conor’s recent personal battles don’t help. He’s also inactive and a much smaller fighter. Paul has way more boxing experience now, and he’s better conditioned.”
Others would provide McGregor resistance at big numbers.
“I would bet McGregor at 4s for sure, maybe at 3s,” poker superstar Phil Hellmuth said. “Craftiness has to count for something.”
Last but not least, a reality check.
“The fight is not real,” longtime bookmaker Dave Sharapan said. “It’s like the line in Casino. ‘You didn’t see the scam? You didn’t see what was going on?’ Well, I can’t see it. And I would hate to book it. I’d rather see you fight Jake.”
Fair enough, Dave. Fair enough.
Jake Paul -200. Conor McGregor +175.
Sportsbooks were content with Jake Paul’s victory over Mike Tyson.
Multiple shops reported massive support for “The Baddest Man on the Planet” throughout the week of the fight and liability builds fast when there’s a popular underdog involved. Ironically enough, there aren’t many more comfortable positions for a sportsbook than needing a boxing favorite to deliver.
Let’s also not get it twisted: Tyson nostalgia affected the market. Memories of early knockouts from years past lingered in the minds of many and, believe it or not, a Tyson first-round knockout was the most-popular bet at several shops.
The day of the fight, Circa Sports told my FOX Sports teammate Patrick Everson they needed [Paul] “for our lungs, and we’re comfortable with that.”
You could tell almost right away Tyson wouldn’t win.
“Paul’s size, power and consistency were impressive,” professional bettor Brandon Wittmyer said. “He was truly underrated by the betting market. Paul has trained well and really improved over the last six fights or so.
“Paul could’ve been -10000 against Tyson.”
McGregor’s announcement comes just weeks after a civil court jury in Ireland ruled in favor of a woman, Nikita Hand, who said McGregor sexually assaulted her in December 2018.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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