This year’s international qualifying program for the Kentucky Derby (G1) has come to this: The winners of the otherwise unheralded Fukuryu Stakes March 23 at Nakayama Racecourse in Japan and the April 6 Cardinal Condition Stakes at Chelmsford City in England will both earn guaranteed spots in the Churchill Downs starting gate.
And the UAE Derby (G2) March 30 in Dubai likely will qualify two more for the maximum 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Probable runners in that race hail from as far afield as Kazakhstan, Uruguay, Japan, and Ireland.
While there’s no guarantee any of the international qualifiers will accept the invitation to participate in the Kentucky Derby, interest has peaked in recent years, particularly in Japan.
The sorting starts with the Fukuryu Stakes, the last of four legs in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. The winner gets 40 points on the leaderboard, guaranteed to land him in the top spot in the final tally. The current leader with 30 points, Ramjet , is sitting it out and the number two, Forever Young , is one of the favorites in the UAE Derby mix and fourth on Byron King’s BloodHorse Derby Dozen list.
There’s not much form to go on in handicapping the Fukuryu field as quality options for young horses on the dirt remain limited in Japan. Only two of the 11 colts have dipped a hoof into the Japan Road competition, both in the Cattleya Stakes in November at Tokyo Racecourse, and that did not go well.
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Bushin, a Kentucky-bred full brother to 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic , was an $800,000 yearling purchase by Hideyuki Mori from the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. The Into Mischief colt showed promise early in 2023 but then was 16th in the Cattleya and started his current campaign with an equally disappointing effort.
Rata Forest, by Pyro , is 2-for-3 overall in lesser races but finished seventh in the Cattleya.
Hopes were high for Century Bond, a Kizuna colt, who scored two wins late in 2023 going 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) on the turf. He then was pitted against some of the best of his generation in the Hopeful Stakes (G1T) Dec. 28 at Nakayama only to report 14th. Hopes now would seem to rest on the surface switch.
Many of the others have shown signs of coming around as they mature.
Amber Doll, by California Chrome , got his first win Feb. 10 at Kyoto after three straight disappointing performances. Arare Tabashiru, by Cape Blanco , won his 3-year-old debut Jan. 7 at Nakayama Racecourse. Harbor Light, by Drefong , has won both his starts this season, both on the dirt at 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles).
La Oracion, by Creator , ended 2023 with his first victory on the Nakayama dirt and picked up where he left off, winning his 3-year-old debut Feb. 25 at the same venue. Both wins came at 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles). Not Enough, by Majestic Warrior , also ended 2023 and began 2024 with wins, both at 1,800 meters on the dirt at Hanshin and Kyoto.
Sunrise Soleil, by Kizuna, did not race at 2. This year, he has a win and a second on dirt and finished fourth going 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles) on turf. T O Password, by Copano Rickey , won at first asking Jan. 6 going 1,800 meters at Kyoto.
Ramsay Tesoro, by 2019 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1) winner Roger Barows, 0-for-2 as a juvenile, won his seasonal debut but disappointed next out, finishing 13th at Nakayama March 10.
After the Fukuryu Stakes determines which Japanese horse has the right of first refusal to the Kentucky Derby, the Cardinal Stakes will do the same for the European Road. Churchill Downs currently lists only one horse on that leaderboard, Navy Seal as a Kentucky Derby possibility and he is likely for the UAE Derby. The Cardinal winner will vault past him to the top spot.
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