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Deterministic Shows Plenty of Grit in Spa Debut Win

This column highlights the performances of maidens who have made no more than five starts and who either sold for more than $500,000 at public auction, have siblings that are graded/group winners, or have dams that are graded/group winners. BloodHorse research shows maiden winners who meet these criteria are more likely to go on to be graded stakes winners.

Saratoga Race Course

While trainer Christophe Clement is best known for his high-caliber turf horses, the Frenchman did spoil California Chrome  ’s 2014 Triple Crown bid with Robert Evans’ Tonalist   in the Belmont Stakes (G1). The rangy son of Tapit  , a distance-loving aficionado, went on to capture consecutive runnings of the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) in 2014 and 2015. Clement may have unveiled another talented two-turn runner on the dirt Aug. 12 at Saratoga Race Course with Deterministic .

Deterministic, a $625,000 acquisition by part-owner St. Elias Stable at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale, was up against no easy task in his debut. The Liam’s Map   colt was facing the highly-regarded Eliminate , a $525,000 purchase trained by Todd Pletcher; $950,000 Curlin   colt Chaperone ; and Informed Patriot , a full brother to 2019 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Spun to Run  .

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Slow from the gate, Deterministic had two horses beat down the backstretch behind lively early splits of :22.77 and :45.91. Into the far turn, the colt began to gobble up ground under jockey Joel Rosario, and swinging widest of all, he withstood a bit of rough contact with favored Eliminate before zeroing in on the leaders. Closing with resolve, a dirt-splattered Deterministic prevailed by a half-length in a final time of 1:24.18 for the seven furlongs.

Deterministic is campaigned in partnership by St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable.

Bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms, Deterministic is the fourth foal out of the Speightstown   mare Giulio’s Jewel, who died last year after giving birth to a filly by Frosted  . All three of her foals to race have been winners. Deterministic’s sire, the Lane’s End stallion Liam’s Map, has sired four grade 1 winners so far, with his most accomplished runner being two-time Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1T) hero Colonel Liam  .

BloodHorse Maiden Watch
Notable  2-year-old maiden winners for week of Aug. 7-Aug. 13
Date Track Race Horse Sire Dam Start Maiden Watch eligibility criteria
8/10 SAR 6 Le Dom Bro  Mucho Macho Man Valiant Emilia 3 Dam is a G3SW
8/11 LRL 6 Testament Constitution Haunted Heroine 1 Full Sibling to G2SW Law Professor
8/12 CBY 2 Xtreme Smoke Show Frosted Imposing Grace 1 Dam is a G3SW
8/12 SAR 5 Deterministic Liam’s Map Giulio’s Jewel 1 $625K Yearling
8/13 ELP 4 Austere Mendelssohn Argumentative 1 Half Sibling to G1SW Epicuris
8/13 MTH 2 Union Roll Union Rags On a Roll 1 Half Sibling to G3SW Doctor Mounty
8/13 SAR 1 Wonder Ride Gun Runner Wonderment 1 Dam is a G3SW

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