Breeders’ Cup Handicapping: American Bikini Catches Eye

The buildup is nearly over. At long last, the 41st Breeders’ Cup is upon us—providing 14 Breeders’ Cup races to test your handicapping and wagering skills, plus numerous supporting events, many of them stakes.

Here are some opinions for Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.

Friday, Juvenile Fillies, Race 7

Americans Scottish Lassie  (10) and Immersive  (3) are solid but beatable. So let’s go with a new shooter: Japanese invader American Bikini  (9). A daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah  , she is a half sister to grade 1 winner Paris Lights  and has established form to accompany her attractive pedigree. After a debut second, she won two straight in Japan, both by open lengths.

An abundance of speed in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) sets up the unbeaten late runner Chancer McPatrick  (10) to have success. Though all his races have been around one turn, he gives the impression of a horse who should have little difficulty with an extra turn and additional distance. He won the one-mile Champagne Stakes (G1) and seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (G1) despite adverse circumstances that would have beaten most horses. He must catch a quality front-runner in East Avenue  (1) to win.

Vahva  (4) did not run to her potential at Saratoga Race Course this summer when third in the Ballerina Handicap (G1) but seems a bounce-back candidate following a designed break. She runs well when fresh, and trainer Cherie DeVaux is enjoying the finest year of her short training career. Ways and Means  (9), a 3-year-old filly, seems her leading rival.

Japanese star Forever Young  (1) has only lost once in seven starts with that race coming when he was third and impeded down the stretch in a roughly contested Kentucky Derby (G1). His trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, won two Breeders’ Cup races the last time Del Mar staged the Breeders’ Cup in 2021. Sierra Leone  (11) and Next  (14) are other contenders in a Classic in which City of Troy  (3) is a regression possibility in his first race on dirt.

Despite two consecutive rear-half finishes, trainer Aidan O’Brien has kept the faith in Content  (7), bringing her to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) even after two disappointing starts in October over wet ground. At an overlaid price, willing to trust his judgment that she can rebound. Firm ground appears to be what she desires. She must outrun Moira  (10) and War Like Goddess  (4).

Notable Speech  (6) bombed on soft going last out in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) but is of high quality on quicker ground, having won two group 1s at a mile this year in Europe. The Charlie Appleby 3-year-old trainee defeated older rivals in the prestigious Sussex Stakes (G1) in one of his major victories this year.