WTC standings scenarios: How India vs Australia 3rd Test could alter World Test Championship

Dhruv Jurel and Abhimanyu Easwaran during the Indian team’s training session before the third Test against Australia in Brisbane. (Getty Images)

The third Border-Gavaskar Test, a crucial match between India and Australia, begins Saturday at the Gabba. With the series tied at 1-1, the Brisbane Test will likely determine the series victor and the final World Test Championship standings.
India’s Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli will face a challenging Australian team determined to win. The Gabba pitch is known for its challenging nature.

India’s hopes rest partly on Australia’s batting vulnerability, which could lead to a collapse if Travis Head’s aggressive batting falters.
India’s bowling strength lies with Jasprit Bumrah, whose performance has overshadowed other bowlers in the series.
However, Bumrah requires more support from fellow bowlers. He also needs runs from batters like Rohit and Kohli to bolster India’s position.
India’s recent struggles with first-innings batting, both home and away, is a significant concern. They have recorded six totals of 150 or less in the past year.
Rohit and Kohli’s first-innings averages in the 2024-25 season are a low 6.88 and 10, respectively.
Australia’s batting lineup also displays fragility. Travis Head has significantly impacted matches, often against India, similar to Rishabh Pant.
Steve Smith’s form is a concern for Australia. Indian bowlers have successfully targeted him by bowling straight lines.
Marnus Labuschagne managed a half-century in Adelaide, but he hasn’t regained his peak form.
Australia have recognised India’s reliance on Jasprit Bumrah’s opening spell with the new Kookaburra ball. They aim to navigate this spell without significant losses and then pressure India’s other bowlers, who are considered less potent.
The Gabba pitch will undoubtedly play a crucial role. Its characteristics often favour fast bowlers, potentially providing an advantage to the Australian team.
However, India’s batting lineup, including Rohit and Kohli, has the potential to capitalise on any scoring opportunities. The outcome will likely depend on which team adapts better to the conditions.
The middle order of both teams will be under scrutiny. They need to contribute consistently to support the top order and build substantial totals.
The pressure will be immense on both teams. The series is evenly poised, and the Brisbane Test will be a test of character and skill.
The weather conditions in Brisbane could make a difference. Rain interruptions could disrupt the flow of the game and impact the outcome.
How World Test Championship could swing after the third Test
Currently, India (on 57.29 percentage points) are third in the WTC standings after losing the second Test. It moved Australia (on 60.71 percentage points) to second with South Africa (on 63.33 percentage points), who beat Sri Lanka, jumping to the top of the points table. As things stand, only four teams are in running for the WTC Final in June.

If India win: India will swap places with Australia and take second place. Rohit Sharma-led side will improve to 59.80 percentage points while Australia will drop to 56.67 percentage points for third place. South Africa will continue to lead the standings.

If Australia win: Australia will remain second but go level with South Africa, India will remain third. Australia will improve to 63.33 percentage points with a win, same as South Africa. India, meanwhile, will concede points to reach 53.92.

If it ends in a draw: If the contest ends in a draw and the series remains 1-1, there will be no change in the order in the WTC standings. Australia will move to 58.89 percentage points and India to 55.88 for second and third place, respectively.
Note: The calculation considers there are no punishments for slow over rates.