The Road: Basketball, Derby Bubbles Soon to Take Shape

Welcome to the calm before the storm.

This weekend racing fans can turn their focus to green beer and college basketball’s “Selection Sunday” as there is not a single qualifying points race in the main Road to the Kentucky Derby. The three Saturdays that follow will see the most lucrative races in the series as the major preps kick into gear with two races March 23, three races March 30, and three more races April 6. Each of these races offer a total of 200 points spread to the top five finishers on this schedule: 100-50-25-15-10.

There will be plenty of bubble talk surrounding men’s and women’s college basketball this weekend. In the weeks ahead racing’s own version of the bubble figures to take shape—qualifying for the Kentucky Derby (G1). Let’s look at the recent past to get an idea of what to look for in the weeks ahead in terms of what kind of points number would be safe to make the field.

Last year the final horse to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (G1) from the main Road was Jace’s Road  with 45 points, which was the same total of the first horse on the also-eligible list, Cyclone Mischief . If two or more horses have the same number of points, the first tiebreaker is earnings in non-restricted stakes.

We have viewed horses who secure 50 or more points on the main Road to the Kentucky Derby as being assured a spot in the field. I think that will remain true this year but it should be noted that in 2023 that number was a bit less secure as Mage  , at exactly 50 points, ranked 15th. That’s the lowest position a 50-point total would have landed since 2019 when three horses tied with 50 points ranked 15-17, including eventual winner Country House   in that 17th slot.

So 50 points will likely continue to do the trick, but any number in the 40s figures to provide connections with some sleepless nights—at least until more races shake out to determine if this year will be similar to 2023 when 45 points proved the cutoff.

Through March 14, six horses have earned 50 or more points: Deterministic  at 50, Track Phantom  and Sierra Leone  with 55 each, Domestic Product  and Dornoch  at 60 each, and Timberlake  at 66. For spots 11-26, we see a point range of 25 to 15. That is to say, not much of a bubble has been established at this point. But all that will change with the three weekends beginning March 23.

• Horses will be shooting for the top 18 spots on the main Road to be ensured of a spot in the Derby. While 20 horses go into the starting gate, two of those spots are reserved for leading points earners on the Japan Road to the Derby and the European Road to the Derby. One of those spots could be opened for 2024 as, to date, there’s been no interest from any of the European Road leaders. Forever Young , ranked second on the Japan Road, could land a spot through the main Road in his scheduled start in the March 30 UAE Derby (G2).
• Should any of the six horses that already have 50 or more points win or place in one of the upcoming races, that would create more opportunities at qualifying as those horses already have the points needed to qualify.
• Also keep in mind that there are four slots for horses entered under the “also-eligible” banner, a path used by 2022 winner Rich Strike . This year’s Derby draw will be a week before the race, which adds more time in which a horse in the initial field of 20 could be scratched, freeing up a spot for a horse off the also-eligible list. Also-eligibles will be able to fill open spots until 9 a.m., May 3 (the Friday before the race).