1. Sovereignty
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Crowned , by Bernardini
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
Though he closed for a respectable second in the Florida Derby (G1) behind Tappan Street , he seemed to regress at least a couple of lengths off his Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)-winning performance. The Florida Derby earned him a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, down from a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and his race was not as visually striking, as he needed motivation from substitute jockey Manny Franco to begin to pick up the leaders on the second turn. Pending the results of this weekend’s preps, he will have at least one more week in the top spot in the rankings in light of his potential to shine over 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Let’s not forget that he rolled by five lengths last fall in the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill over eventual Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman.
Watch: King Recaps Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby
2. Journalism
Owner/Trainer: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, Bob LaPenta, Mrs. John Magnier-Lessee, Derrick Smith-Lessee, Michael Tabor-Lessee/Michael McCarthy
Curlin —Mopotism , by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Don Alberto (KY)
The favorite at 5-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed in mid-March, San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Journalism can validate that support when he races in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby (G1) against Citizen Bull, Barnes, Baeza , and longshot Westwood . He will likely have to overcome the tactical disadvantage of limited pace to prevail. Bob Baffert-trained stablemates Citizen Bull and Barnes appear to be the principal speed horses, and the thinking in this corner is that Barnes will be rated to play the role of a pace presser, given his past success with that style. So Umberto Rispoli on Journalism may need to put his mount into the race early—just as he did in the San Felipe with success—to keep those leaders honest and keep Journalism within striking distance.
Those wondering how this speedster will fare if outsprinted or hooked early may have to wait for the May 3 Kentucky Derby (G1) for that test. Drawn in post 2, a couple spots inside of barnmate Barnes, he looks positioned again to dictate the pace in the Santa Anita Derby. To date, no one has been able to catch him in three routes. Victories in the 2024 American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) propelled him to an Eclipse Award, and he was just as sharp in romping in the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) to kick off his season.
Citizen Bull leads throughout in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar
4. Tappan Street
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, CHC, and Cold Press Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief—Virginia Key , by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Blue Heaven Farm (KY)
The Florida Derby winner is the biggest mover in the rankings, climbing from 10th. He ran to a series of promising workouts in the Florida Derby, reeling in the leaders and finishing so well that late-closing Sovereignty could only make up limited ground on him late. He heads to Louisville, Ky., short on experience with three starts, all at Gulfstream. He is still pretty fresh, having been given eight weeks off between his runner-up finish in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and his win in the Florida Derby. Now he’ll have five weeks of rest heading into the Derby itself.
5. Sandman
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables/Mark Casse
Tapit —Distorted Music , by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Though his winning time of 1:50.08 in the Arkansas Derby (G1) was slower than the 2024 and 2023 clockings, he still earned a 104 ESF, indicating that the Oaklawn Park surface was not playing quickly. Sandman received a dream setup in the race when Speed King and Cornucopian set furious splits, but he still comfortably defeated late-running runner-up Publisher by 2 1/2 lengths, and that one similarly benefited from the race flow. The challenge for Sandman in the Kentucky Derby is not the 1 1/4-mile distance, which he should relish, but securing a favorable trip. As a closer, he will have to negotiate considerable traffic in a 20-horse field.
6. Barnes
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—All American Dream , by American Pharoah
Breeder: Jeff Drown and Don Rachel (KY)
The one-time favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager among individual betting interests, Barnes had his stock dip following his no-excuse loss to Journalism in the San Felipe. He has a rebound opportunity in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, which has only five entered but three Derby Dozen-ranked entrants. After being outworked by stablemates Rodriguez and Cornucopian at Santa Anita Park when breezing without blinkers, Barnes finished with more energy with the equipment March 31, a half-mile timed in :48. With only 18.75 existing Kentucky Derby points, he likely needs a top two finish in the Santa Anita Derby to be squarely in the race based on historical trends.
7. Burnham Square
Owner/Trainer: Whitham Thoroughbreds/Ian Wilkes
Liam’s Map —Linda , by Scat Daddy
Breeder: Whitham Thoroughbreds (KY)
With Tappan Street winning the Florida Derby, Burnham Square’s performance in defeating that inexperienced rival in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) stands out. Burnham Square’s follow-up race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes had things to like and dislike. He did not appear to be all that engaged, requiring jockey Edgard Zayas to encourage him, but Burnham Square was steady even on a day when he was not putting it all together. The 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes (G1) gives him a bit more ground. With heavy rain expected in Kentucky this week, the Blue Grass has the potential to be run over an off track, a surface over which he and numerous other Blue Grass entrants have not yet raced.
8. Coal Battle
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables/Lonnie Briley
Coal Front —Wolfblade by Midshipman
Breeder: Hume Wornall and Jay Adcock (KY)
His first dirt defeat in the Arkansas Derby came with an excuse. He was keen when passing the stands for the first time, fighting jockey Juan Vargas. Though he would relax to settle through the first turn to sit a good trip behind a hot pace, being unsettled early may have sapped him of some of his customary finish. His final eighth of the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby was :13.70. Trainer Lonnie Briley believes he may have left him “too fresh” by how he trained him. Still, Coal Battle dips a few spots with confidence waning that he will stay 1 1/4 miles as well as some others.
The field comes by the stretch the first time in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
9. Chancer McPatrick
Owner/Trainer: Flanagan Racing/Chad Brown
McKinzie —Bernadreamy , by Bernardini
Breeder: Rigney Racing (KY)
A slow pace in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) did not play to his late-running style, and he could not catch a loose-on-the-lead Owen Almighty in his season debut. The fractions of the Saturday’s Blue Grass should unfold with a lively clip. East Avenue , having disappointed in his races from off the pace, would seem a candidate to be sent to the lead, and Owen Almighty and River Thames are naturally speedy types who will also be forwardly placed. Chancer McPatrick, last year’s Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Champagne Stakes (G1) winner gets his opportunity to prove his legitimacy as a two-turn performer Saturday.
10. River Thames
Owner/Trainer: CHC and WinStar Farm/Todd Pletcher
Maclean’s Music —Proportionality , by Discreet Cat
Breeder: CTR Stables (NY)
Tappan Street’s ownership has another opportunity for grade 1 glory Saturday at Keeneland when River Thames runs in the Blue Grass, a race Hall of Famer trainer Todd Pletcher has won four times. The runner-up in the Fountain of Youth, River Thames did the dirty work in that race by chasing pacesetting Neoequos . After putting that one away, he seemed to get a little tired and/or lose focus, which made him vulnerable to Sovereignty’s rally. The Blue Grass should provide a key measuring stick as to whether this colt is a Triple Crown contender or more apt to succeed over middle distances.
11. Tiztastic
Owner/Trainer: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith/Steve Asmussen
Tiz the Law —Keesha , by Tapit
Breeder: Capital Bloodstock (KY)
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer in North American racing history, would appear to have two Derby chances in his pursuit to train his first winner in the first leg of the Triple Crown: Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher and this colt. Both are late-running types that will need trips to go their way in the Derby to upset, though both appear to have adequate stamina. Tiztastic won what appeared to be a softer-than-usual running of the Louisiana Derby at the Preakness Stakes (G1) distance of 1 3/16 miles.
12. Grande
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher
Curlin—Journey Home , by War Front
Breeder: KatieRich Farms (KY)
While awaiting word whether Japan’s Luxor Cafe will accept an invitation to run on the Derby—he will join the Derby Dozen if he’s coming—Grande fills the final spot in the rankings ahead of his matchup against Rodriguez, Captain Cook , and others in Saturday’s Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Perfect in two starts at Gulfstream, he is naturally quick, and like so many progeny of Curlin, able to route. He overcame a slow start to win his debut at a mile and then handled allowance optional claiming foes at 1 1/8 miles without difficulty. Without any Derby points, he needs a 1-2 finish in the Wood to punch a ticket to Kentucky.
Grande wins an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park
