1. Sovereignty
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Crowned , by Bernardini
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
The Street Sense Stakes (G3) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner has a blend of speed and staying power in his pedigree. A son of Spendthrift Farm’s six-time reigning general sire Into Mischief, Sovereignty is also out of a mare by the late Bernardini, one of the top broodmare sires of recent decades. Digging deeper into his pedigree, Sovereignty has sires like Empire Maker, Seeking the Gold, and Seattle Slew in his bloodlines, further evidence he is bred for the classics.
Watch: King Recaps Tampa Bay Derby, Previews Virginia Derby
2. Journalism
Owner/Trainer: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, and Bob LaPenta/Michael McCarthy
Curlin —Mopotism , by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Don Alberto (KY)
Just how fast was his victory in the March 1 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park? He ran 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.24, which earned him a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, the highest route figure on dirt by a 3-year-old this year on the ESF scale. Other speed and performance figures similarly rated it as a rapid performance. If he can avoid regression, he will be tough to beat in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his final prep before the May 3 Kentucky Derby (G1).
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To provide further context to how quickly Journalism ran in the San Felipe, Citizen Bull—the reigning 2-year-old champion male—ran a 107 ESF I taking the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita and a 106 in capturing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall at Del Mar. On March 8, Citizen Bull drilled six furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:12 3/5. Working by himself, the colt was asked by his rider to breeze past the wire—not out of the ordinary when Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert desires a demanding workout from one of his horses.
4. Barnes
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—All American Dream , by American Pharoah
Breeder: Jeff Drown and Don Rachel (KY)
Signals are mixed from the San Felipe. On one hand, he ran a 107 ESF, good enough to win many races on the Derby trail, and lost to a horse in Journalism that is on just about everyone’s short list of leading Kentucky Derby contenders. On the other hand, Barnes had everything his own way on the lead and did shorten his stride over the final sixteenth of a mile. His second route, scheduled to come at 1 1/8 miles, should give us a barometer about prospects over the Derby’s classic 1 1/4-mile distance.
5. Coal Battle
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables/Lonnie Briley
Coal Front —Wolfblade by Midshipman
Breeder: Hume Wornall and Jay Adcock (KY)
Some of these 3-year-olds are head-turners when they breeze. Coal Battle is workmanlike. The half-mile he turned in at Oaklawn Park March 5 in :49 2/5 is pretty much standard for him. Not as physically imposing as many of his Derby Dozen counterparts, he has racked up a 5-for-5 dirt record, topped by a win in the Feb. 23 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. The March 29 Arkansas Derby (G1), the April 5 Blue Grass Stakes (G1), and the Kentucky Derby are all options for his next race. Suspect we’ll see him in the Arkansas Derby.
6. Burnham Square
Owner/Trainer: Whitham Thoroughbreds/Ian Wilkes
Liam’s Map —Linda , by Scat Daddy
Breeder: Whitham Thoroughbreds (KY)
Following his fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, trainer Ian Wilkes indicated the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner would race next at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. That is not a great surprise as Wilkes is Kentucky-based from spring through fall. Recall that 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled and 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense made their final pre-Derby starts in the Blue Grass for Carl Nafzger, for whom Wilkes was an exercise rider and a trusted assistant.
7. Chancer McPatrick
Owner/Trainer: Flanagan Racing/Chad Brown
McKinzie —Bernadreamy , by Bernardini
Breeder: Rigney Racing (KY)
His comeback in the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) resulted in a second-place finish, but of the race’s seven competitors, this dual grade 1 winner would appear the one most likely to threaten in the Kentucky Derby. The pace of the Tampa Bay Derby was a crawl, aiding victorious Owen Almighty , and Chancer McPatrick spotted that rival and the six others 4 pounds apiece in a return start. Blinkers seemed to help keep him closer to the early leaders, where he needed to be given the fractions. Still, Owen Almighty spurted away from him in the stretch, resulting in Chancer McPatrick dipping a few spots in the Dozen. (Owen Almighty is unranked due to his favorable trip and trainer Brian Lynch’s feeling that the horse may have distance limitations.)
8. Sandman
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables/Mark Casse
Tapit —Distorted Music , by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
While Coal Battle had his first post-Rebel work March 5, Sandman recorded his first work since the race March 11, breezing four furlongs in :49 2/5. Sandman is a colt who has kept an active racing schedule this winter, and Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has not needed to breeze him regularly. Sandman had just one workout between his runner-up finish in the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes (G3) and the Rebel. This colt has upside over a 1 1/8-mile distance in the Arkansas Derby and later over 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby.
9. River Thames
Owner/Trainer: CHC and WinStar Farm/Todd Pletcher
Maclean’s Music —Proportionality , by Discreet Cat
Breeder: CTR Stables (NY)
Though he was caught late by Sovereignty when runner-up in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, River Thames left a favorable impression. He had a demanding trip for a speed horse, chasing eventual show finisher Neoequos through a fast six-furlong split in 1:10.68, and after putting that rival away in early stretch and opening up a lead, he lost focus and tired. He has a right to improve from that race, his first two-turn experience, though the confidence level is lower with him than others regarding him staying the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance.
10. Tappan Street
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, CHC, and Cold Press Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief—Virginia Key , by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Blue Heaven Farm (KY)
After running second in the Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes to Burnham Square, he has been out of sight, out of mind while simply training at Payson Park. But a March 8 in-company workout there—in which he breezed head and head with the 5-year-old Saudi Crown , a grade 1 winner—lands him back in the ‘Dozen. Tappan Street’s rider had him under a snug hold, giving the impression he could have passed Saudi Crown had he been asked. Anticipating that the beaten Holy Bull favorite will move forward in his third career start.
11. Built
Owner/Trainer: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners/Wayne Catalano
Hard Spun —Sea Garden , by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
Trainer Wayne Catalano will attempt to win a second Louisiana Derby (G2) when the race is contested March 22 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Back in 1997, he captured the race with Crypto Star, who, after a follow-up victory in the Arkansas Derby, would later finish fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Catalano’s top 3-year-old this year is Risen Star Stakes (G2) third-place finisher Built. With Risen Star winner Magnitude sidelined, the stakes-winning, twice graded-placed Built is one of the top local hopes.
12. Captain Cook
Owner/Trainer: St. Elias Stable/Rick Dutrow Jr.
Practical Joke —Pow Wow Wow , by Indian Charlie
Breeder: Marylou Whitney Stables (KY)
With prior No. 12 Flood Zone aimed at the April 5 UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai, per a Daily Racing Form report, Captain Cook replaces him in the final spot of the ‘Dozen. Even if Flood Zone wins in Dubai, the long travel to the Middle East and back may take him out of the Kentucky Derby picture. So Captain Cook now rates as the top horse with current New York form, coming off a wide victory in the Feb. 1 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack at 1 1/8 miles. Two-for-two for trainer Rick Dutrow and owner St. Elias Stable since being bought for $410,000 at the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age sale by agent Steve Young after an initial sixth-place finish at Churchill Downs.
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