After winning the Florida Derby (G1) last week with the Brad Cox-trained Tappan Street , owners WinStar Farm and CHC have an opportunity at another top-level stakes victory April 5 when River Thames competes in the $1.25 million Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
The Todd Pletcher-trained River Thames, also racing for partners Pantofel Stable and Wachtel Stable, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite against six other 3-year-olds in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) prep. (Cold Press Racing, which teamed with WinStar and CHC with Tappan Street in the Florida Derby, does not have a stake in River Thames.)
Four other entrants in the Blue Grass—Burnham Square , Owen Almighty , East Avenue , and Chancer McPatrick —are predicted to start at odds of between 3-1 and 7-2—though it is unlikely bettors will ultimately find them so evenly matched by post time.
The remaining two runners, Render Judgment and Admiral Dennis , are 20-1 apiece in a race that could be run on a wet track if showers materialize as forecast this week. Areas of Kentucky are under a flood watch through the weekend.
The seven 3-year-olds entered in the Blue Grass will vie over 1 1/8 miles with 200 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby at stake. Churchill Downs, which uses qualifying points as a preference system for when the Derby more than its maximum field size of 20 horses, distributes points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five finishers in the Blue Grass.
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All seven starters have existing Derby points, though only Owen Almighty has already safely secured a position in the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 65 points—well over the approximate 40-point threshold that has been needed to gain a Derby starting spot the past two years.
Like River Thames and numerous others, Owen Almighty gets his first 1 1/8-mile test in the Blue Grass. Only Render Judgment and East Avenue have competed over 1 1/8 miles, and the five others have not raced beyond 1 1/16 miles. In his one try at the latter distance, River Thames was caught late by Sovereignty when second to that rival in the March 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. That race marked his initial two-turn route after two wins in as many starts in one-turn races.
Pletcher felt his colt lost focus late. One of his ears can be seen pricking forward before Sovereignty rallies past him.
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Irad Ortiz Jr., who had ridden Owen Almighty to victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), takes the mount on River Thames, a son of Maclean’s Music . Pletcher, a Hall of Famer, is a four-time Blue Grass winner who most recently won the race in 2023 with Tapit Trice . Ortiz’s brother, Jose, rides Owen Almighty, who under Irad Ortiz led from start to finish in his previous start in defeating Chancer McPatrick in a slow-paced Tampa Bay Derby March 8.
Trainer Brian Lynch has long viewed Owen Almighty as a miler/middle-distance router but deferred to the colt’s ownership, Flying Dutchen Breeding and Racing, in pursuit of the Derby dream.
Asked of the possibility of an off-track, a surface on which none of the Blue Grass horses have raced, Lynch said of Owen Almighty, “I think he will relish it, and that is a thing that might be in his favor.”
Owen Almighty is a son of Speightstown, whose progeny have a 21% win record on muddy tracks according to BRIS past performance data.
The pace of the Bluegrass figures to be swifter than the Tampa Bay Derby. Besides speed horses such as River Thames and Owen Almighty, East Avenue is a front-runner.
The latter won his first two starts on the lead, including the 2024 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, before rear-half finishes in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) after stumbling at the start and in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) this winter when chasing the pace in his season debut. Trainer Brendan Wealsh adds blinkers to East Avenue’s equipment in the Blue Grass.
Five horses have completed the Breeders’ Futurity-Blue Grass double, including most recently Essential Quality in 2020-21.
A quick pace would set up off-the-pace runners Burnham Square, who won the Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes (G1) over Tappan Street before running fourth in the Fountain of Youth, and Chancer McPatrick, winner of last year’s Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) stakes around one turn.
Entries: Toyota Blue Grass S. (G1)
Keeneland, Saturday, April 05, 2025, Race 10
- Grade I
- 1 1/8m
- Dirt
- $1,250,000
- 3 yo
- 5:52 PM (local)
