The countdown for the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) is down to hours, not months. The best dirt 3-year-olds in the country and beyond will gather May 6 at Churchill Downs for a memorable showdown.
Two-year-old champion Forte , winner of his past five races, tops the United States hopefuls and there will be some international flavor with two entrants in the main body of the race from Japan.
Favorites had been on a roll in recent years but after Rich Strike ‘s score at 80-1 odds last year, expecting the unexpected might be the wise thing to do on Saturday.
1. Hit Show (30-1): Tough to like any horse breaking from the rail, but he’s not exceptionally fast away from the gate, heightening the chances of being shuffled back early. He showed some tenacity in losing by a nose after a bumpy stretch duel in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and that grit will definitely be needed here.
JOCKEY: Manny Franco; TRAINER: Brad Cox
2. Verifying (15-1): Turned in a strong showing when beaten a neck by Tapit Trice in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Looks like a contender on paper, but the post is problematic. Dumped his rider during morning exercise May 4 but was still on track for the race on a day that the scratches of three other horses were announced.
JOCKEY: Tyler Gaffalione; TRAINER: Brad Cox
3. Two Phil’s (12-1): He earned his spot in the field through a big win in Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), but that was on a synthetic surface. He was an impressive winner of the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in the slop last year, so rain will move him up. But on a dry track, he’s less appealing from an inside post.
JOCKEY: Jareth Loveberry; TRAINER: Larry Rivelli
4. Confidence Game (20-1): Looked good winning the Rebel Stakes (G2) on a sloppy track, but he hasn’t raced since then. Not racing for more two months is commonplace in the industry, but in a race like this I would like to see a more recent effort.
JOCKEY: James Graham; TRAINER: Keith Desormeaux
5. Tapit Trice (5-1): Part of Todd Pletcher’s powerful hand is the second choice in the morning line and deservedly so. After a loss in his debut, he’s reeled off four straight wins, capped by victories in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1). A tardy break could be troublesome in this field but he certainly has the resume and speed figures to be a force here.
JOCKEY: Luis Saez; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
6. Kingsbarns (12-1): Pletcher’s third option, he passed his test of class, winning the Louisiana Derby (G2) in front-running style. He’s proven himself at 1 3/16 miles and is undefeated in three starts, but it’s questionable whether he can hold up at 1 1/4 miles in a field this tough with so little seasoning.
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
7. Reincarnate (50-1): Draw a line through his third last time out in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and you have an interesting contender who was a fast-closing third after encountering some traffic issues in the Rebel. At 5-1 he’s a tossout in terms of value, but at 50-1, after last year, he could be an interesting saver wager.
JOCKEY: John Velazquez; TRAINER: Tim Yakteen
8. Mage (15-1): Off a second to Forte in the Florida Derby (G1) he’s a contender, but that was just his third career start. He also had first run on Forte and was caught, raising questions about the added furlong here.
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano; TRAINER: Gustavo Delgado
9. Skinner (20-1): Seems to be on the improve after a pair of third-place finishes to Practical Move . Lost by 3 3/4 lengths in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and a half-length in the longer Santa Anita Derby (G1).
JOCKEY: Juan Hernandez; TRAINER: John Shirreffs
10. Practical Move (scratched)
11. Disarm (30-1): Needed his third-place finish three weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes (G3) to qualify. He’s a longshot, but is worth a look as he was a rallying second in the Louisiana Derby and the Lexington was probably more of a paid workout with Derby ramifications than a hard race.
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario; TRAINER: Steve Asmussen
12. Jace’s Road (50-1): He’ll be part of the early pace but it seems unlikely that he can last the entire 1 1/4-mile trip. He’s one of the few in the field who would be a tossout in the mud.
JOCKEY: Florent Geroux; TRAINER: Brad Cox
13. Sun Thunder (50-1): Fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes and fifth in the Louisiana Derby do not build a compelling case for him. Maybe the addition of blinkers will help.
JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.; TRAINER: Ken McPeek
14. Angel of Empire (8-1): The distance should be no problem for him, judging by the way he drew off to win the Arkansas Derby and the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Drew nicely in the field of 20 and looks like a major player.
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: Brad Cox
15. Forte (5-2): Here’s the star of the show. Two-year-old champion. Florida Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner. Five straight wins for Pletcher. He’s done everything right since a loss in his stakes debut at 2. The mile-and-a-quarter distance may be a mystery but everything else about him paints him as the horse to beat.
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr.; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
16. Raise Cain (50-1): Won the Gotham Stakes (G3) by more than seven lengths to qualify but then was a wide and distant fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes. Perhaps he moves forward after the regression in the Blue Grass, but he’s facing a tough challenge with his lone graded stakes win coming in a one-turn grade 3 affair.
JOCKEY: Gerardo Corrales; TRAINER: Ben Colebrook
17. Derma Sotogake (10-1): Judging by their success all over the world, at some point a Japanese horse is going to be right there at the finish of the Kentucky Derby. So why not him? A very impressive winner of the UAE Derby (G2), he should be on or near the lead and if he doesn’t become embroiled in a wild speed duel like his countrymate, Crown Pride , did last year, he seems talented enough to have a big say in the outcome.
JOCKEY: Christophe Lemaire; TRAINER: Hidetaka Otonashi
18. Rocket Can (30-1): Was second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) but then was a no-factor fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Not a lot to like here but he does add blinkers and is trained by one of the game’s best, Hall of Famer Bill Mott.
JOCKEY: Junior Alvarado; TRAINER: Bill Mott
19. Lord Miles : scratched
20. Continuar : scratched
21. Cyclone Mischief (30-1): He drew into the field May 4 and will need some improvement from a third in the Florida Derby.
JOCKEY: Corey Lanerie; TRAINER: Dale Romans
22. Mandarin Hero (20-1): Japan-based runner also made it into the field Thursday and is an intriguing a contender off a nose loss in the Santa Anita Derby in his U.S. debut
JOCKEY: Kazushi Kimura; TRAINER: Terunobu Fujita
23: King Russell : Enters off a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby and officially made it into the field at about 9 p.m. Thursday when the scratch of Continuar was announced.
JOCKEY: Rafael Bejarano; TRAINER: Ron Moquett
THE PICK: Angel of Empire
LIVE LONGSHOT: Reincarnate
SUPERFECTA: 14-15-17-7
