1. Dornoch
Owner/Trainer: West Paces Racing, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables/Danny Gargan
Good Magic —Puca , by Big Brown
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Not since 1995, when Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby (G1), has a Remsen Stakes (G2) participant scored at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. (He became the sixth Remsen horse to take the Derby.) Perhaps the 2023 Remsen runners can end that losing streak this year. In addition to this colt, who gamely won the 2023 Remsen over Sierra Leone before beating a depleted field in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), eventual Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Domestic Product was seventh in the Remsen. Sierra Leone went on to win the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes (G2) and still others in the Remsen lineup performed well in subsequent starts, such as Drum Roll Please , next-out victor in the Jan. 6 Jerome Stakes.
2. Fierceness
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher
Pedigree: City of Light —Nonna Bella , by Stay Thirsty
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
As disappointing as his return was when third in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) with a subpar trip, he continues to impress in his morning training. Last year’s champion 2-year-old male dusted a very promising colt in the 2-for-2 Tuscan Sky in a March 8 breeze. Clocked in 1:00.99 for five furlongs, he left his hard-ridden foe several lengths behind in a breeze that continued past the wire at Palm Meadows Training Center. If Fierceness runs to that work in the March 30 Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park, a return to his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)-winning form seems in order.
3. Sierra Leone
Owner/Trainer: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Brook Smith, and Peter Brant/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Heavenly Love , by Malibu Moon
Breeder: Debby M. Oxley (KY)
Trainer Chad Brown has two horses safely qualified for the May 4 Derby in this colt and Domestic Product, with 55 and 60 qualifying points, respectively. Domestic Product fell just short of cracking the Derby Dozen this week, kept out due to a slow final time in the Tampa Bay Derby and a bunched finish against a relatively unaccomplished field. Sierra Leone defeated a far better group when he won the Risen Star Stakes, leaving horses such as Track Phantom , Catching Freedom , Resilience , and Honor Marie behind him. Encouraged to already see two half-mile breezes at Payson Park this month as he preps for the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
Sierra Leone passes Track Phantom to win the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds
4. Forever Young
Owner/Trainer: Susumu Fujita/Yoshito Yahagi
Real Steel —Forever Darling , by Congrats
Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)
Japan’s top 3-year-old improved to 4-for-4 in taking the one-mile Saudi Derby (G3) at King Abdulaziz Racecourse, though he needed every inch of its never-ending stretch to run down American Book’em Danno . The surface at King Abdulaziz Racetrack was quicker than usual this year, but his time, in particular, was much faster than prior runnings. The Saudi race was not part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, so Forever Young’s Kentucky Derby chances might hinge on finishing first or second when he runs next in the March 30 UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan in Dubai. He will be favored to win in international pari-mutuel wagering pools.
5. Timberlake
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm/Brad Cox
Into Mischief —Pin Up , by Lookin At Lucky
Breeder: St. Elias Stables (KY)
Eager to see what this colt does in his final Derby prep, owing to him defeating what seemed like a fairly modest group in the Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes (G2). That was a rare Rebel that did not have an invader to Oaklawn Park from the Southern California-based stable of trainer Bob Baffert. The quality of competition aside, there was plenty to like about how he settled and finished, though he was still a little green through the stretch, being slow to switch leads and then drifting out under left-handed pressure. Take note of a solid workout in :48 2/5 March 8 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.
6. Track Phantom
Owner/Trainer: L and N Racing, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom, and Breeze Easy/Steve Asmussen
Quality Road —Miss Sunset , by Into Mischief
Breeder: Breeze Easy (KY)
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has eased back on the colt’s morning breezes leading toward the March 23 Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, a perfectly understandable decision given how active this colt has been through the winter in New Orleans. After racing in Kentucky last fall, he won the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes and Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes (G3) before his runner-up finish to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star. With the latter headed to the Blue Grass, Track Phantom could be favored in the Louisiana Derby, the longest domestic prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at the Preakness Stakes (G1) distance of 1 3/16 miles.
7. Catching Freedom 
Owner/Trainer: Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox
Constitution —Catch My Drift , by Pioneerof the Nile
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
The Smarty Jones Stakes winner was a respectable third in the Risen Star. He finished well but was outkicked by Sierra Leone and unable to catch frontrunning Track Phantom, who settled for second. He seems to be making steady improvement, and with the right setup—catching more pace than he did in the Risen Star —he could produce in one of these final Derby preps. His most recent work March 9 at Fair Grounds in 1:00 4/5 was one of his quicker moves of the year
8. Mystik Dan
Owner/Trainer: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III/Kenny McPeek
Goldencents —Ma’am by Colonel John
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III (KY)
Given how quickly he ran in winning the Feb. 3 Southwest (G3), in which he posted a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, a nearly two-month break before the March 30 Arkansas Derby (G1) is deserving. Regression is still possible after he raced atop the fence in the Southwest over a muddy track he relished. The Arkansas Derby should be an intriguing race filled with quality, with this colt clearly adding to it. One would presume Mystik Dan will be facing multiple starters from the talent-laden stables of trainers Brad Cox and Bob Baffert.
Mystik Dan (inside) pulls away to capture the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
9. Deterministic
Owner/Trainer: St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable/Christophe Clement
Liam’s Map —Giulio’s Jewel , by Speightstown
Breeder: Hinkle Farms (KY)
Out of action since winning on debut at Saratoga Race Couse in the summer, trainer Christophe Clement wanted to prep him in an allowance race this winter in Florida but could not find a suitable spot. So he returned March 2 at Aqueduct Racetrack in the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3), and he produced, finishing best down the lane to beat Just a Touch and El Grande O . A start in one of the final rounds of Derby preps is on deck. Inexperience leaves him in the bottom half of the ‘Dozen. Even if he runs well in his next race and proceeds on to Louisville, he will have just a single two-turn start before racing 1 1/4 miles in the Derby.
10. Conquest Warrior
Owner/Trainer: Courtlandt Farms/Shug McGaughey
City of Light —Tea Time , by Pulpit
Breeder: Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY)
After comfortably winning in an allowance optional claiming race March 1 at Gulfstream Park, he resumed working with an easy half-mile breeze in :50 at Payson Park March 11, a positive indication that exited his race in good shape. Based on historical trends, this colt will likely need a 1-2 finish in his final Derby prep to quality for the Derby. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is fairly selective with what he brings to Churchill Downs for the Derby, running just eight horses in the classic and only three since Easy Goer and Awe Inspiring ran 2-3 in 1989. McGaughey won the Derby in 2013 with Orb and was second with his most recent starter Code of Honor in 2019.
11. Hades
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable and Robert Cotran/Joe Orseno
Awesome Slew —The Shady Lady , by Quality Road
Breeder: Ocala Stud, Joseph M. O’Farrell III, David O’Farrell, et al. (FL)
A series of promising workouts since this 3-year-old won the Holy Bull, and the results from this past weekend’s Tampa Bay Derby are encouraging signals before a second meeting with Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Domestic Product, who split the two of them in the Holy Bull, managed to overcome a slow pace in the March 11 Tampa Bay Derby to nip No More Time by a nose. Hades beat the two of them in the Holy Bull, albeit with the best trip of the three, setting soft splits from his inside post after outbreaking a slow-starting and rushed-up Fierceness.
12. Tuscan Sky
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher
Vino Rosso —South Andros , by Sky Mesa
Breeder: Sierra Farm (KY)
Without any Kentucky Derby qualifying points, his Derby status depends on him securing those is an upcoming prep—with the Louisiana Derby looking like his next stop. He’s 2-for-2, racing on wet tracks on each occasion, and comes off a very fast allowance optional claiming win at Fair Grounds. Less enthusiastically, and the reason for his demotion a few spots this week, he was soundly outworked by Fierceness this past Friday at Palm Beach Downs. Still, the fact that Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher put him with the 2-year-old champ of last year indicates the high opinion he has of Tuscan Sky.
* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, including Nysos , Muth , and Imagination , are in the Derby Dozen. Look for Baffert in the Triple Crown starting with the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course.
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