1. Dornoch
Owner/Trainer: West Paces Racing, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables/Danny Gargan
Good Magic —Puca , by Big Brown
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Though victorious in his first start at 3, winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, this was a workmanlike return in which he went to the front and turned back an inside bid from 27-1 longshot Le Dom Bro to score by 1 3/4 lengths. Following the scratches of Locked , Victory Avenue , and Speak Easy , there was very little chasing this full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage ; the runner-up and show finisher Frankie’s Empire are not Triple Crown nominated. Dornoch raced a little greenly, reflected by a late lead change, and seemed to be doing only what was required, flicking his ears nearing the finish.
2. Fierceness
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher
Pedigree: City of Light —Nonna Bella , by Stay Thirsty
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
He nearly regained the top spot in the Derby Dozen rankings this week, owing to the ordinary Fountain of Youth victory from Dornoch, but in the end, last year’s champion juvenile holds steady at number two. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has expressed satisfaction with this colt’s training since his third-place finish in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) as he prepares to regroup in the March 30 Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream. Erratic through his four career starts, he is also quick when he puts it all together. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) win last fall was a beauty, and a return to that brilliance would make him imposing on the Derby trail.
3. Sierra Leone
Owner/Trainer: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Brook Smith, and Peter Brant/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Heavenly Love , by Malibu Moon
Breeder: Debby M. Oxley (KY)
Of all the Derby Dozen-ranked 3-year-olds, no one has beaten a better stakes field this year than this well-bred colt. He ran down a loose-on-the-lead Track Phantom in capturing a slow-paced Risen Star Stakes (G2) over the latter’s home track at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, and other talented runners such as Catching Freedom , Resilience , and Honor Marie were also behind him. His final time of 1:52.13 for 1 1/8 miles over a sloppy track was the slowest in the Risen Star since the race was extended to that distance in 2020; the clocking did not match the class evaluation of the race. He resumed working March 2 at Payson Park Training Center as he points to the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
4. Forever Young
Owner/Trainer: Susumu Fujita/Yoshito Yahagi
Real Steel —Forever Darling , by Congrats
Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)
He and a handful of others on this list rise a spot in the rankings, owing to the removal of Locked (previously fourth) from the ‘Dozen. (After a setback caused Locked to miss the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), he was scratched from the March 2 Fountain of Youth after Pletcher said he was dissatisfied with the colt’s behavior Saturday.) As for Forever Young, he needed the full length of the massive stretch at King Abdulaziz Racecourse to run down sprinter/middle-distance runner Book’em Danno in the Feb. 24 Saudi Derby (G3) at about a mile. The race was much quicker than prior runnings of the Saudi Derby.
Forever Young captures the Saudi Derby at King Abdulaziz Racecourse/image]
5. Timberlake
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm/Brad Cox
Into Mischief —Pin Up , by Lookin At Lucky
Breeder: St. Elias Stables (KY)
Though he did not defeat a vintage Rebel Stakes (G2) field Feb. 24 at Oaklawn Park, he scored the right way, shutting off early to kindly stalk the pace for Cristian Torres and finishing well to pull away late from longshot Common Defense , who had slipped up the fence with a perfect trip. Like Dornoch, Timberlake was a little slow with his lead change and was still a little green through the lane, but his finish was on target. His final sixteenth of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel was timed in :06.09 for a final time of 1:44. A son of record-setting sire Into Mischief, he has an interesting blend of speed and staying power in his pedigree, with his dam a winner over a 1 3/4-mile trip in Britain.
6. Track Phantom
Owner/Trainer: L and N Racing, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom, and Breeze Easy/Steve Asmussen
Quality Road —Miss Sunset , by Into Mischief
Breeder: Breeze Easy (KY)
After rattling off three straight wins—coming in a Nov. 25 maiden race at Churchill Downs, and the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes and the Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds—he settled for second in the Risen Star. There were no excuses. He enjoyed a comfortable front-running trip and was run down, admittedly by a quality foe in Sierra Leone. Barring a change in plans, he will not have to deal with Sierra Leone in the March 23 Louisiana Derby (G2) as that rival is pointed to the Blue Grass. Should Track Phantom make his way to the Derby, he will not lack seasoning, having started on essentially a monthly basis since his unveiling on Oct. 1. The Louisiana Derby will mark his fourth stakes start since just before Christmas.
7. Catching Freedom 
Owner/Trainer: Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox
Constitution —Catch My Drift , by Pioneerof the Nile
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
He seems to know that morning breezes are only practice, rarely posting a workout that excites folks after checking the times on their stopwatches. His March 3 drill was a case in point: a half-mile in :51.20. He seems to know it’s show time in the afternoons. The Constitution colt won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn and ran third in the Risen Star Stakes, turning in a solid kick in the latter race when jostled late. He could re-appear in any number of 3-year-old stakes races, depending on where Cox aims his other runners. The Louisiana Derby and March 30 Arkansas Derby (G1) seem to be two of the logical options given this colt’s familiarity with Fair Grounds and Oaklawn.
8. Mystik Dan
Owner/Trainer: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III/Kenny McPeek
Goldencents —Ma’am by Colonel John
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III (KY)
His race in the Southwest Stakes (G3) was one of the fastest performances by a Derby prospect this year, with him running his final sixteenth in :05.93 on his way to winning by eighth lengths with 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.67. He earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, a number surpassed only by Nysos among 3-year-olds racing on dirt this year. Skimming the inside portion of the track, he seemed to skip over the muddy surface in the Southwest. Take note that also ran quickly in breaking his maiden when sprinting on a fast track last year, but his two routes on fast tracks resulted in fifths, with one of those losses behind Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones. Arkansas Derby is on deck.
9. Tuscan Sky
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher
Vino Rosso —South Andros , by Sky Mesa
Breeder: Sierra Farm (KY)
Without any Kentucky Derby qualifying points, his Derby status depends on him securing those in the final round of major Derby preps. Based on historical trends, a 1-2 finish may be required to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A second-place finish would give him 50 points, a win 100 points. Having gone 2-for-2 with wins at Aqueduct Racetrack and Fair Grounds, racing both times on wet tracks, upcoming stakes such as the March 23 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds or the April 6 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) hold appeal. His allowance optional claiming win at Fair Grounds on Risen Star Day was the fastest race for 3-year-olds on that sloppy afternoon from an ESF perspective.
10. Deterministic
Owner/Trainer: St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable/Christophe Clement
Liam’s Map —Giulio’s Jewel , by Speightstown
Breeder: Hinkle Farms (KY)
Unraced since scoring in his debut against maidens when racing seven furlongs at Saratoga Race Course in August, he had a right to come up a little short in the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3) this past Saturday at Aqueduct. But he was strongest at the finish, following the bid of El Grande O (ultimately third) and outkicking favored Just a Touch , a fellow last-out maiden winner and the eventual runner-up. Owing to the strength of his finish, he cracks the ‘Dozen, even though he is the lone 3-year-old on this list not yet with a two-turn victory. As for his prospects going longer, his dam was a turf sprinter but he has stamina influences more distant in the female side of his pedigree. Sire Liam’s Map was a dual grade 1 stakes winner around two turns, including in the 1 1/8-mile Woodward Stakes (G1) in 2015.
11. Conquest Warrior
Owner/Trainer: Courtlandt Farms/Shug McGaughey
City of Light —Tea Time, by Pulpit
Breeder: Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY)
After overcoming a troubled start and traffic problems to rally and break his maiden by a half-length Jan. 13 at Gulfstream, he showed what he could do with a clean trip when heavily favored March 1 against first-level allowance optional claiming runners there. After breaking a half-step slowly, he settled in fourth and reeled in leader Merit , the race’s second choice, before drawing off by five lengths. His ESF was light, an 85, for covering 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.52, but he passed the eye test over two turns; in the same boat as Tuscan Sky in needing Derby points in an upcoming prep.
[image url=”//cms-images.bloodhorse.com/i/bloodhorse-images/2024/03/9dc7d0a8570749d48c78e21bbc2fafb4.jpg?preset=medium” alt=”Conquest Warrior, AOC, Gulfstream Park, March 1 2024″ credit=”Coglianese Photos/Ryan Thompson”]Conquest Warrior wins an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park
12. Hades
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable and Robert Cotran/Joe Orseno
Awesome Slew —The Shady Lady , by Quality Road
Breeder: Ocala Stud, Joseph M. O’Farrell III, David O’Farrell, et al. (FL)
Perfect in three starts, he clings to the final spot in the ‘Dozen rankings, with Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) winner Honor Marie exiting the top 12 due to running a non-threatening fifth in the Risen Star. As for Hades, he turned away a slow-starting and comebacking Fierceness to capture the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. (Fierceness would run third.) Domestic Product , the runner-up in the Holy Bull, is pointed to the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and how he performs there will provide a gauge of the strength of the Holy Bull. The race had a slow final time 1:46.07, though the track was on the tiring side and unfolded with a slow pace, which was to this front-runner’s benefit.
* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, including Nysos, Muth , and Imagination , are in the Derby Dozen. Nysos, the favorite in future wagering for the Preakness Stakes (G1), would be on top in these rankings if eligible.
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