1. Sovereignty
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Crowned , by Bernardini
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
Having breezed a half-mile in :49 1/5 Jan. 31 at Payson Park Training Center after a limited work pattern this winter, he retains his position at the top of this list, but only just. To secure the necessary foundation and preps under his belt before the May 3 Kentucky Derby (G1), upping his qualifying points from his current tally of 10, he needs smooth sailing over the remainder of the winter and early spring. The talent is there, as evidenced by his five-length romp in the Oct. 27 Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs in his last start.
2. Barnes
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Pedigree: Into Mischief—All American Dream , by American Pharoah
Breeder: Jeff Drown and Don Rachel (KY)
A two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race is next for this talented colt, who is unbeaten in two sprints. Six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert said Barnes would run next in either the Feb. 22 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park or the March 1 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park. The $1.25 million Rebel has a much higher purse than the $300,000 San Felipe, though the latter race has the appeal of being at his home base of Santa Anita. Either race will give him an opportunity to pick up his first Kentucky Derby points.
3. East Avenue
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Brendan Walsh
Medaglia d’Oro —Dance Music , by Ghostzapper
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
As East Avenue nears a scheduled return in the Feb. 15 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, trainer Brendan Walsh gave him a five-furlong gate drill in 1:01 Feb. 1 in New Orleans. He went by himself, and it seemed little more than a test to ensure he broke cleanly. Recall that he stumbled at the start of the Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and lost all chance, running ninth. Excited to see what the 2024 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner can do this year at age 3.
The reigning champion 2-year-old male was faster than ever in the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita, running a mile in 1:36.71 and earning a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 107. He enjoyed another uncontested lead, but he is a horse whose speed often leaves his rivals playing catchup. It isn’t easy to fully assess the strength of this win given that just five horses raced in the Lewis, and only two stablemates were legitimate challengers.
Citizen Bull defeats a short cast in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park
5. Chancer McPatrick
Owner/Trainer: Flanagan Racing/Chad Brown
McKinzie —Bernadreamy , by Bernardini
Breeder: Rigney Racing (KY)
Though he disappointed when sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the flow of the race never suited this deep closer. Only European invader and third-place finisher Hill Road —now based in America and who breezed for the first time in 2025 Feb. 3 at Payson Park—made up any meaningful ground late. Chancer McPatrick, winner of last year’s Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Champagne Stakes (G1), has two works under his belt in 2025 as trainer Chad Brown targets the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
6. Burnham Square
Owner/Trainer: Whitham Thoroughbreds/Ian Wilkes
Liam’s Map —Linda , by Scat Daddy
Breeder: Whitham Thoroughbreds (KY)
The Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner debuts at No. 6 in the Derby Dozen after closing from last to defeat Tappan Street by 1 3/4 lengths Feb. 1 at Gulfstream Park. Off just behind his rivals, he seemed to climb a bit into the first turn but then raced professionally, advancing up the inside down the backstretch. With traffic all around him, he moved between horses on the second turn and angled out, was easily strongest down the stretch. Two-for-two since adding blinkers and should relish racing further distances.
Burnham Square (outside) breaks a step slowly in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park
7. Disco Time
Owner/Trainer: Juddmonte/Brad Cox
Not This Time —Disco Chick , by Jump Start
Breeder: Juddmonte (KY)
Trainer Brad Cox will often work his stakes horses a couple of weeks after a start, but Disco Time had not breezed through Feb. 4 after taking the Jan. 18 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds. Admittedly, it seemed a taxing race. He needed to rally past horses to stick a neck in front after getting fanned out wide in the lane. It was a slow Lecomte, but few horses could have overcome the adversity he did to improve to 3-for-3.
8. Journalism
Owner/Trainer: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, and Bob LaPenta/Michael McCarthy
Curlin —Mopotism , by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Don Alberto (KY)
Beating Baffert trainees in major 2-year-old and 3-year-old races in California is no easy feat. Yet, Journalism did that in romping by 3 1/2 lengths in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), a race Baffert has captured 14 times. However, Baffert’s top horses were not in there; Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up Getaway Car and third-place Gaming seem to be his graded stakes second stringers. Journalism posted two easy solo works in late January as trainer Michael McCarthy prepares him for the San Felipe.
9. Sandman
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables/Mark Casse
Tapit —Distorted Music , by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Though Speed King defeated him in the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, his troubled trip and his upside as a $1.2 million purchase lands him ahead of that rival. Sandman recovered after a horrendous start and a wide journey to grab the runner-up prize in the Southwest, though there was no getting past the winner. Sandman seems to be a horse that is developing with seasoning, typical of the progeny of the legendary Tapit.
10. Coal Battle
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables/Lonnie Briley
Coal Front —Wolfblade by Midshipman
Breeder: Hume Wornall and Jay Adcock (KY)
Perhaps due to beginning his career at Evangeline Downs, this 3-year-old does not have the buzz of other prospects on the Kentucky Derby trail. But he is 4-for-4 on the dirt, three times capturing stakes. His two routes have been his best: a half-length defeat of Speed King in the Dec. 13 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes and a four-length romp in the Jan. 4 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. The Rebel is next after working five furlongs Feb. 3 in 1:02 3/5 at Oaklawn.
Coal Battle pulls away in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park
11. Speed King
Owner/Trainer: Triton Thoroughbreds/Ron Moquett
Volatile —Athenian Beauty , by Corinthian
Breeder: Nancy C. Shuford (KY)
The Southwest winner has attributes of his sire and dam. He is speedy like Volatile, a grade 1-winning sprinter, and Speed King is now a route winner like Athenian Beauty. She won three races at mile and beyond on turf. Speed King’s closing sixteenth in the Southwest was just :06.71, but he seemed to be waiting on the opposition once he had put away the other speed. He galloped out with energy.
12. Rodriguez
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Bob Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert
Authentic —Cayala , by Cherokee Run
Breeder: Kingswood Farm and David Egan (KY)
Intimidated between horses on the backstretch during the Robert B. Lewis this past weekend, he dropped back from second to fourth. But once he was placed outside horses, he re-engaged and surged into second to chase his victorious, free-running stablemate Citizen Bull. This was only his third career start, and he should have upside as he gains seasoning. Clings to the final spot in the rankings, just ahead of horses such as Grande , Captain Cook , River Thames , Hypnus , and Hill Road.
