The Florida Derby (G1) has historically been the most important steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with 25 3-year-olds who competed in the race going on to glory in the first jewel of the Triple Crown.
Mage , who finished second in the 2023 Florida Derby, is the most recent horse to come out of Gulfstream Park’s marquee race for 3-year-olds and go on to win the Kentucky Derby.
This year’s $1 million Florida Derby March 29 at Gulfstream drew a field commensurate with the historical hype headlined by Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Sovereignty . The Godolphin homebred from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has been ranked No. 1 on Byron King’s Derby Dozen for all nine editions thus far leading up to the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Can Sovereignty join a list of past winners that includes names such as Northern Dancer (1964), Spectacular Bid (1979), and Barbaro (2006)? Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s Madaket Road looks like a formidable opponent and Todd Pletcher, who holds the record with eight Florida Derby wins, will target a ninth victory with highly regarded Disruptor .
The Florida Derby is scheduled for 6:42 p.m. ET and will award Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale. Racing fans can watch the race on CNBC and FanDuel TV or stream it on Peacock.
1. Neoequos (10-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Edgard Zayas
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Owners: C2 Racing Stable, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, and Stefania Farms
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $179,050
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 15
Pedigree: Neolithic—Bold Birdie, by Birdstone
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: This colt by Neolithic has flown under the radar on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail but has been quietly consistent. He unseated his rider in his career debut in July 2024 but Neoequos has finished in the top three in five subsequent starts and ran well in his graded stakes debut March 1 when third to Sovereignty in the $415,000 Fountain of Youth. He faded late after setting the pace in his first start around two turns in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth and will try to stretch out an additional sixteenth of a mile to 1 1/8 miles in the Florida Derby for a trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who won this race in 2022 with White Abarrio . Neoequos should challenge for the lead from the inside post under Edgard Zayas and is fast enough to be in the hunt in the stretch. A top-two finish would lock in a spot in the Kentucky Derby and he probably would also qualify by running third. Co-owner C2 Racing is part of the ownership group that races White Abarrio.
2. Cool Intentions (20-1)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Jorge Delgado
Owner: Amo Racing USA
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $62,810
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Authentic —Intentional Cry, by Street Cry
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Cool Intentions closed out his 2-year-old season with back-to-back wins at Gulfstream at one mile and seven furlongs but that success did not carry over into his 3-year-old debut. Cool Intentions finished 8 1/4 lengths behind winner Guns Loaded while fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, a one-mile race from which the top three finishers are unplaced in four combined subsequent starts. Likewise, Cool Intentions would have to improve his career-best Equibase Speed Figure by 10-15 points to be a win candidate. Three-year-old racehorses can make big improvements in the spring, and that’s what Cool Intentions’ supporters and connections must hope for in the Florida Derby. Expect jockey Javier Castellano, who won this race in 2014 on Constitution, to position Cool Intentions a few lengths behind what could be a swift pace and try to get a head start on the closers.
3. Smoken Boy (30-1)
Jockey: Edgar Perez
Trainer: Cheryl Winebaugh
Owner: KEM Stables
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $47,260
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 70
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Catholic Boy —Smoken Deb, by Cairo Prince
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Smoken Boy was claimed for $70,000 by trainer Cheryl Winebaugh on behalf of owner KEM Stables out of his most recent start, a sixth-place finish in which he was beaten by 13 lengths in a 1 1/8-mile race Feb. 27 at Gulfstream Park. Prior to that race, Smoken Boy finished 19 1/2 lengths behind John Hancock when eighth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The Catholic Boy colt had flashed talent in three starts in Puerto Rico before shipping to the continental U.S., but that form to date has not transferred in two attempts in Florida. Expect Smoken Boy to vie for the highest odds in the field and anything more than rounding out the superfecta would qualify as a major surprise.
4. Disruptor (4-1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owners: Repole Stable, Spendthrift Farm, Big Easy Racing, Titletown Racing, Winners Win, Golconda Stable, Ali Goodrich, and Mark Parkinson
Career record: 2 starts – 1 win – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $49,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Gun Runner —Margate Gardens, by Speightstown
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher’s chances for a record-extending ninth win in the Florida Derby—he also has won three of the past four editions—rest upon lightly raced Disruptor. The Gun Runner colt set the pace and faded late in his career debut Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park but then returned five weeks later at the same track and seven-furlong distance and dominated by 9 1/4 lengths. His speed figures for that race—99 Equibase Speed Figure and 92 Beyer Speed Figure—were terrific for a 3-year-old in his second start. Since Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. have teamed twice in the past four years to win this race with Known Agenda (2021) and Forte (2023), Disruptor figures to be a popular win selection. Keep in mind, however, that he is taking a massive leap in terms of class from a maiden race to a grade 1 Kentucky Derby qualifying race with a $1 million purse. This is a significant class test while also asking Disruptor to stretch out in distance a quarter-mile longer than he has ever raced. Expect Ortiz to use Disruptor’s natural speed to gain good position early just in behind the pacesetter(s) and ask him to make his move on the final turn. He’s fast enough to be a win contender but this is a tough assignment.
5. Indecisiveness (30-1)
Jockey: Jorge Ruiz
Trainer: Ruben Sierra
Owner: Just For Fun Stable
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $62,668
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 80
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Decisive Moment —Cafe de Nuit, by Hat Trick
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: Indecisiveness is winless in three starts since a half-length victory in his career debut Nov. 2, 2024, in a sprint race at Gulfstream. He enters the Florida Derby off a third-place finish at 53-1 odds in the 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race Feb. 27 from which Smoken Boy was claimed and fellow Florida Derby contender Jimmy’s Dailys finished second. This colt would very likely need to improve his Equibase Speed Figure by about 20 points to be a win candidate in the Florida Derby and probably will vie with Smoken Boy for the highest odds in the field. Perhaps in the best-case-scenario, Indecisiveness could benefit from a very fast pace by rallying for a minor award.
6. Jimmy’s Dailys (12-1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Owner: Donald R. Dizney
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $71,770
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Vekoma —Mama Joyce, by First Dude
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: After running third once in two starts as a 2-year-old, Jimmy’s Dailys opened the season with a victory going seven-eighths of a mile Jan. 25 at Gulfstream. That 1 1/4-length score earned a 93 Equibase Speed Figure and trainer Brian Lynch tested him next in an allowance-optional claiming race at 1 1/8 miles. Sent off as the 2-1 second betting choice, Jimmy’s Daily set the pace but could not hold off favored Grande and settled for second best. Jimmy’s Dailys is eligible to improve off that race, considering he was stretching out an extra quarter-mile in his first try around two turns, and he must do just that to be a serious player in his stakes debut in the Florida Derby. Jockey Joel Rosario takes over for Irad Ortiz Jr., who opted to ride Disruptor, and figures to use the Vekoma colt’s tactical speed for early position on or near the lead along with a group that includes Neoequos, Disruptor, and Rebel Stakes runner-up Madaket Road.
7. Enterdadragon (30-1)
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Trainer: Jose D’Angelo
Owners: Chester Bishop, Anthony Hinkson, Alvin Rampaul, PK Ventures, and Grand Cay Breeders and Racing Company
Career record: 9 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $103,144
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 92
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Outwork —Raising Aida, by Speightstown
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: The potential for a fast pace in the Florida Derby could play to the strength of Enterdadragon … if he can use the same late acceleration he flashed on turf when second most recently in the Colonial Liam Stakes on the dirt main track Saturday. The Outwork gelding from the family of unbeaten champion Personal Ensign has raced twice on the main track with a maiden win Sept. 1 at Gulfstream in a race originally scheduled for the grass that was moved to the main track because of rain. Enterdadragon then finished fifth on dirt in the Aventura Stakes and was switched back to turf for his next five races. This is an aggressive spot for a return to the main track and he would need to take a step forward to factor in the outcome, but Enterdadragon could pass some tiring horses late to find his way into the superfecta or trifecta if the pace is swift in the Florida Derby.
8. Madaket Road (7-2)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $280,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 102
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 31
Pedigree: Quality Road —Frolic’s Dream, by Smoke Glacken
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has had only eight starters at Gulfstream since 2017, winning the Pegasus World Cup (G1) three times and finishing second in that race twice among those eight runners. So, when you see a Baffert entrant in the Florida Derby it is worth noting. Part of the reason Baffert is shipping Madaket Road to Florida from Southern California is because his cup runneth over with talented 3-year-olds and he would prefer not to race them against each other. This Quality Road colt has held his own against elite competition this year. He finished third behind champion Citizen Bull in his 3-year-old debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and then ran second to Coal Battle in the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes (G2). The blinkers come off Madaket Road, which is usually a very positive indicator for a Baffert-trained 3-year-old. He does not need the lead, but Madaket Road should be prominent early and he could be very tough to pass late under Tyler Gaffalione, who won the Florida Derby in 2022 on White Abarrio. A top-three finish would lock in Madaket Road’s spot in the Kentucky Derby.
9. Tappan Street (5-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owners: WinStar Farm, CHC Inc., and Cold Press Racing
Career record: 2 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $73,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 10
Pedigree: Into Mischief —Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: If you are looking for a possible value bet in the Florida Derby, Tappan Street is a quality 3-year-old with potential to improve who could slip under the radar. The Into Mischief colt won his debut for Brad Cox Dec. 29 in a sprint at Gulfstream and then was tested in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), a Kentucky Derby qualifying race, and led in the stretch before fading to finish second to Burnham Square . While the winner returned to finish fourth in the Fountain of Youth, I thought Burnham Square’s effort in that race was better than it looks on paper. The speed figures indicate Tappan Street belongs with this group and he would be a viable win contender with a moderate improvement in his third career start for Cox, a realistic possibility. Regular rider Luis Saez won this race in 2019 aboard Maximum Security.
10. Sovereignty (8-5)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owner: Godolphin
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $388,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 60
Pedigree: Into Mischief —Crowned, by Bernardini
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: The runaway winner of the Street Sense Stakes (G3) in his final start as a 2-year-old, Sovereignty was a popular horse on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail entering the season and lived up to the hype with a last-to-first rally to win the Fountain of Youth March 1. A Godolphin homebred by leading sire Into Mischief, Sovereignty has shown the ability to finish very fast in his races and he could be even better in his second race back after a layoff of more than four months for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. While Madaket Road owns the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field (102), Sovereignty’s 95 Beyer Speed Figure for the Fountain of Youth is three points better than any other horse. He will have his work cut out for him breaking from the outside post in a 10-horse field, but because he prefers to race well off the pace there is a chance jockey Junior Alvarado can guide him over to the rail and not lose too much ground on the first turn. Sovereignty looks like a legitimate win contender for the Kentucky Derby, so he must be respected in the Florida Derby as the one to beat.
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