1. Sovereignty
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Crowned , by Bernardini
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
A little less than seven weeks out from the May 3 Kentucky Derby (G1), Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Sovereignty—training toward the March 29 Florida Derby (G1)—represents Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott’s best chance at winning the Run For the Roses since his success in the first leg of the Triple Crown in 2019. That year, upon the stewards’ disqualification of Maximum Security for interference and his demotion to 17th, the Mott-trained Country House was elevated to first, and his Mott-trained stablemate, Tacitus , was awarded third. In the years since, Mott’s best finish with three starters was a sixth last year from Resiliency .
Sovereignty after his victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park
2. Journalism
Owner/Trainer: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, and Bob LaPenta/Michael McCarthy
Curlin —Mopotism , by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Don Alberto (KY)
Very few stallions consistently pass along class and staying power on dirt like Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms’ Curlin . Nearly all of his multi-millionaires, horses such as Vino Rosso , Idiomatic , Malathaat , Exaggerator , Keen Ice , Clairiere , Cody’s Wish , Good Magic , Stellar Wind , Palace Malice , and Nest won over at least a mile, with one exception being Elite Power , North America’s champion male sprinter in 2022-23. Journalism is proven at a route, capturing the 2024 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and this year’s San Felipe Stakes (G2).
Since the formation of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) has lured many of the best 2-year-olds, and winning the 1 1/16-mile contest obviously requires a horse of high quality. So it is a bit of a surprise that only two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners have been able to win the Derby six months later—those being Street Sense in 2006-07 and Nyquist in 2015-16. Last year’s Juvenile winner Citizen Bull can bid to become the third in 2025, though many wonder how the speedster will react to a demanding pace. He has enjoyed relatively easy front-running trips in rattling off three consecutive graded stakes triumphs.
4. Barnes
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—All American Dream , by American Pharoah
Breeder: Jeff Drown and Don Rachel (KY)
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, reinstated by Churchill Downs Inc. last summer after being banned from competition at CDI tracks after Medina Spirit’s post-race test and eventual disqualification for betamethasone in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, appears headed back to the first leg of the Triple Crown in 2025. Citizen Bull and San Felipe Stakes (G2) runner Barnes are his top prospects in a bid to win a seventh Derby. The Baffert-trained Cornucopian , a debut maiden winner Feb. 23 at Oaklawn Park, is another uber-talented 3-year-old, though he is far behind in experience.
5. Coal Battle
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables/Lonnie Briley
Coal Front —Wolfblade by Midshipman
Breeder: Hume Wornall and Jay Adcock (KY)
Trainer Lonnie Briley told Oaklawn publicity late last week that he would continue to take a wait-and-see approach for this colt’s next race. Coal Battle could start in the March 29 Arkansas Derby (G1)—seemingly the most likely option given his success at Oaklawn and his training there—the April 5 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, or simply await the May 3 Kentucky Derby. Coal Battle ran a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure in taking the Rebel Stakes after seven weeks off, but he has not shown the need for spacing to run to his full potential. Five-for-five on dirt, he won the Smarty Jones on three weeks’ rest in his start preceding the Rebel.
6. Burnham Square
Owner/Trainer: Whitham Thoroughbreds/Ian Wilkes
Liam’s Map —Linda , by Scat Daddy
Breeder: Whitham Thoroughbreds (KY)
Only nine times has a gelding won the Derby—as Burnham Square is—and just twice in modern times with Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009). That duo became quite popular, and without any stud future, they raced past their 3-year-old seasons—Funny Cide to age 7 and Mine That Bird to age 4. Holy Bull Stakes (G1) winner Burnham Square, fourth most recently in the Fountain of Youth, appears on target for the Blue Grass after working a half-mile March 14 at Palm Meadows Training Center in :49.
7. Chancer McPatrick
Owner/Trainer: Flanagan Racing/Chad Brown
McKinzie —Bernadreamy , by Bernardini
Breeder: Rigney Racing (KY)
His return as a 3-year-old when second to Owen Almighty in the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) left questions: is this late-running colt as effective around two turns as one—over which he is a dual grade 1 winner as a juvenile—or was his loss at Tampa Bay Downs more the result of a slow pace and needing a start to regain fitness? And are his 2-year-old stakes wins as good as they appear at first glance, given the limited subsequent accomplishments of those that were immediately behind him? His next race at 1 1/8 miles, expected to come in the Blue Grass, should answer these questions and determine if he’s a Derby horse or more of a one-turn Pat Day Mile (G2) type.
8. Sandman
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables/Mark Casse
Tapit —Distorted Music , by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has won many of the most coveted races in the United States and Canada, including two legs of the American Triple Crown in 2019. That year, War of Will captured the Preakness Stakes (G1) after a troubled seventh when interfered with by Maximum Security in the Derby, and Sir Winston won the Belmont Stakes (G1). Casse, winless in the Derby from 10 starters, has one of his best Derby chances with the pricey Sandman, a son of Tapit who ran a slow-starting second in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and a rallying third in the Rebel.
River Thames wins an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park
9. River Thames
Owner/Trainer: CHC and WinStar Farm/Todd Pletcher
Maclean’s Music —Proportionality , by Discreet Cat
Breeder: CTR Stables (NY)
No trainer has run more horses in the Kentucky Derby than Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, who has started 65, winning with Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). At least in part, his volume of starters reflects the depth and quality that is regularly present in his barn, and of course, dreams by owners to have a starter in the Derby. Thin with stakes-proven 2-year-olds in 2024, Pletcher’s stable of 3-year-olds on the Derby trail is now led by this colt, the Fountain of Youth runner-up, and the promising up-and-comers Grande and Disrupter .
10. Tappan Street
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, CHC, and Cold Press Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief—Virginia Key , by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Blue Heaven Farm (KY)
Trainer Brad Cox has opted for spacing over experience with many of his top 3-year-olds on the Derby Trail this year. Stablemate John Hancock , the Louisiana Derby (G2) morning-line favorite, has just two starts before that key Derby prep, just like this colt, who is unraced since his runner-up finish behind Burnham Square in the Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream. Training smartly at Payson Park in preparation for a matchup with Sovereignty and others in the Florida Derby.
11. Built
Owner/Trainer: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners/Wayne Catalano
Hard Spun —Sea Garden , by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
Following a Risen Star Stakes (G2) in which Built threatened before flattening out in the stretch to finish a distant third behind the now-sidelined Magnitude , trainer Wayne Catalano adds blinkers to Built’s equipment for the March 22 Louisiana Derby (G2). This colt might benefit from the focus those sometimes provide after spotty efforts in his last two. The Risen Star received a flattering form endorsement when American Promise and Render Judgment , respectively fifth and eighth, ran 1-2 in the March 15 Virginia Derby.
American Promise wins the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs
12. American Promise
Owner/Trainer: BC Stables/D. Wayne Lukas
Justify —Tapella , by Tapit
Breeder: Candy Meadows (KY)
Coming off a track record-setting performance in the Virginia Derby, he displaces Captain Cook in the final space in the ‘Dozen. American Promise’s 1 1/8-mile time of 1:46.41 earned him a solid but not crazy-fast ESF of 101 over an incredibly quick Colonial Downs surface. Most encouraging was how he won. Favored Getaway Car quickly led in the initial strides, but American Promise dialed up the pressure and took a length advantage by the six-furlong stage. The D. Wayne Lukas trained American Promise—a good-looking, $750,000 purchase at auction—continued to pour it on down the lane to cross the wire 7 3/4 lengths in front of rivals not considered to be leading Kentucky Derby contenders.
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